mardi, juin 05, 2007

Technical dilemma

This histogram below (% bullish for members of the Stoxx 600) shows that the overall trend remains positive for equities.(68% short term bullish, 71% mid term bullish and 88% long term bullish)












click on the chart to enlarge

But recently some warning signals appear from a market timing technique, called TD Combo & TD Sequential used mainly by contrarian and aggressive traders.
Those indicators recently gave low risk sell indications on several indices, including on the Euro STOXX 50 and the S&P 500.
On the chart of the Dj Euro Stoxx 50 you can see arrows when the TD Combo indicator is flashing sell signals.
The last signals were pretty accurate but the negative point is that this method does not give any target.













The German government bonds yield is approaching the 4.5% first (weekly chart) target and strong resistance zone but I think that in the mid-term yields will move higher because the long term downtrend has been broken on the monthly chart and because we have a big bullish ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart
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So for conclusions I can say that equities are still bullish but overbought and bonds are still bearish but oversold.

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