P/E STOXX 600

Les actions Européennes sont-elles correctement évaluées?
Le graphique du Stoxx 600 ci-dessous nous montre qu’il est possible de concilier analyse technique et analyse fondamentale.
En effet, si nous revenons quelques années en arrière nous pouvons constater que la tendance baissière de l'indice de 2001 à 2003 s’est accompagnée d’une hausse des P/E des actions.(divergence baissière)
Alors que depuis 2003 les actions se sont grandement appréciées tout en étant de moins en moins chères (P/E en baisse).(divergence haussière)
Il est à noter que même si les P/E sont légérement repartis à la hausse en 2006, nous sommes encore très loin des exaggérations passées.

Technical Weekly 270106

EQUITIES

After a correction nearly to the 3500 support level the Euro Stoxx 50 rebounds quickly and I believe that it is likely to move higher.
The bounce was pretty impressive and other markets also experienced strong days on rising volume.
Japan for instance have bounced right off the 50 days moving average, that suggests that the worse may be over in the land of the rising sun.So, for now, the trend is up. Especially outside US and it is only if the SP 500 breaks below 1250 that I may worry a bit.


















COMMODITIES


Brent

I remain bullish even after the significant downside move of last week.
As you can see on the chart, the trend is still up for the Brent.
Only a break below the mid-term uptrend (in red) will change my view.


















Gold

The trend of gold remains very strong.A pullback due to extreme overbought situation is likely (see arrows on the chart when a pink 13 number appears a correction is likely) but the long term remains bullish.


















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD

Bonds are more cause for concern than equities because the significant upside acceleration on yields last week confirm my bearish scenario and I believe that there is a high probability of further upside towards 3.7%.(arrow on chart)





















EURO-DOLLAR
No change from last week as the Euro-dollar has been stabilising.
The low point touched corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the bullish movement started at the beginning of 2002.(see graph below)
I still think that the rate will break above 1.22 but on a short- term basis it could consolidate between 1.196 and 1.21.

Technical Weekly 20012006

EQUITIES

Last week I said that equity markets were overbought and that a correction could be coming soon. So, there we are but I still not believe that this is the start of a major correction.
The consolidation may last a bit longer (the Macd indicator on the chart below is still bearish) before indexes resume the mid-term uptrend.
I also maintain the positive long -term view on the Japanese market.
The recent steep correction was not really a surprise and I will monitor closely the 15000 support level on the Nikkey 225.If this level holds I expect the bull market to resume soon.



















COMMODITIES


Brent

No change from last week, the bullish trend is still in place.The price could challenge the 70$ soon.

















Gold

After a brief pause and a pullback to the upper trend-line of the rising channel, the bullish trend accelerates sharply. A pullback due to extreme overbought situation is likely (see arrows on the chart when a pink 13 number appears a correction is likely) but the long term remains bullish.





















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
The upside acceleration that I suggested last week has occurred and I believe that yields have resume their uptrend.


















EURO-DOLLAR
No change from last week as the Euro-dollar has been stabilising.I still think that the rate will break above 1.22 but on a short- term basis it could consolidate between 1.196 and 1.21.

Belgacom Delhaize Tessenderlo et Taux allemand

Le secteur des Telecom continue de mal performer.
Belgacom vient de sortir par le bas de sa longue configuration latérale.
















Par contre le graphique hebdomadaire de Delhaize suggère une forte probabilité de poursuite de la hausse.

Il en va de même pour Tessenderlo qui après être sorti d’une large figure en biseau descendant en décembre, continue son parcours à la hausse avec comme objectif un cours au-dessus des 30 Eur.Il est à noter qu’il ya peu de resistances sur le titre.



















Après avoir retracé 61.8% de la hausse, le taux 10 ans allemand sort violemment à la hausse d’une figure en biseau descendant.

Technical Weekly 16012005

EQUITIES

The Euro Stoxx 50 is approaching the 3700 resistance zone and is now overbought.
The Macd indicator has just given a sell signal, as a result a consolidation is expected on a short term basis.
We will monitoring closely the 20 day moving average (in green) closely because a rebound on it will mean that the index could challenge the next target zone around 3800 soon but a breakdown of it could mean that the correction should extend further.




















COMMODITIES


Brent

No change from last week, the bullish trend is still in place.
The price could challenge the 70$ soon.

















Gold
After a brief pause and a pullback to the upper trend-line of the rising channel, the bullish trend accelerates sharply. A pullback due to overbought situation is possible but the long term remains bullish.




















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD

Yields are stabilising around support, which includes the 100 and 200-day moving average.
The Macd is close to give a bullish signal and a falling wedge bullish pattern is clearly visible, which is why we believe that yields may not go much lower than that.
Renewed strength may be imminent.




















EURO-DOLLAR

The weekly chart of the Euro-dollar shows that the 2005 fall stopped at the spring 2005. At the same time, the weekly MACD lines have made a double bottom pattern and turned positive. The rate has also broken a downtrend line going back almost a year.
The first objective is located around 1.25.

SMART MONEY SP 500

Le graphique ci-dessous nous montre que les “gros joueurs” cad les “commercials” sont devenus nettement plus prudent sur le SP500.
En effet ces derniers sont passés agressivement short, l’indicateur Macd donnant un signal de vente mi-décembre.

Secteurs STOXX 600

Quelles sont les secteurs à privilégier en 2006?

Pour ce faire nous utiliserons ici le concept de la force relative cad le secteur choisi divisé par l’indice.
Voici donc quelques observations sur les secteurs Stoxx 600 en Europe.
Nous pouvons les classifier en 5 groupes.
Tout d’abord les secteurs qui se situent toujours dans une tendance haussière.
Il s’agit des secteurs : Basic Resources, Construction, Financial Services,Industrials et Travel&Leisure avec un bémol pour ce dernier qui se situe proche d’une résistance.
Ensuite les secteurs qui se trouvent en phase corrective à court terme mais dans une tendance à la hausse à plus long terme : Chemicals, Insurance, Personal&Household et Technology.
Le secteur des utilities se trouvant dans une tendance plutôt neutre, voyons maintenant les secteurs en tendance baissière .
Il s’agit des secteurs Media, Retail, Telecom, Food&beverage et dans une moindre mesure Health Care.
Deux secteurs sont à surveiller car ils semblent se redresser à court terme et repartir à la hausse : Oil&Gas et Automobiles.

Technical Weekly 090106

EQUITIES

The market rallied strongly on the back of the release of the December FOMC minutes.
As a result, the Euro Stoxx 50 is approaching the 3700 resistance zone and is now overbought.
The bulls expect that the trend should remain positive and the bears figure that the bulls have spent all their "new year's" money and are about out of cash.Ibelieve that the overall trend should remain positive, short terms pullbacks are likely but the index could challenge the next target zone around 3800.

















COMMODITIES
Brent

Take a look at this long-term chart of oil.
It is clearly in a secular uptrend. However during the US hurricane season oil ran ahead too quickly, culminating in September's medium-term peak as Katrina struck. The chart also shows that oil's reaction bottomed in November and that the price is now on its way back up.


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Gold
After a brief pause and a pullback to the upper trend-line of the rising channel, the bullish trend accelerates sharply.

GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD

European 10-year government bonds rose for a fourth week as signs of inflation in the euro region is slowing damped hopes over how far the European Central Bank will raise the benchmark interest rate this year. Ten-year debt rallied, pushing yields to their lowest in 2 1/2 months, after a report Jan. 4 showed inflation in the 12- nation economy slowed to 2.2 percent in November, nearing the ECB's target.The graph. below shows the German Government Bond Yield approaching support at the 3.23% level.

EURO-DOLLAR
The rate has probably reversed its downward trend, confirming wave 1 according to Elliott .The bullish reversal pattern and the breakout of two trend-lines of which one very significant (in red) opens bullish prospects for the Euro.The first objective is located around 1.25 and the second around 1.27.

EURO-DOLLAR

L’euro-dollar vient problablement de renverser sa tendance à la hausse confirmant ainsi la vague 1.La rupture de 2 droites de tendance dont l’une très significative (en rouge) ouvre des perspectives haussières pour l’Euro.Le premier objectif de la figure en forme de biseau d’élargissement descendant se situe vers les 1.25 et le second vers les 1.27.

Technical Weekly 03012006

EQUITIES

Tuesday, European stocks had their biggest gain in a month after manufacturing in the region grew in December at the fastest pace in 16 months and German unemployment plunged.
It looks like the European economy is improving and that is good news for stocks.
Stock markets remain in their uptrend, which is likely to persist into the first quarter of 2006. It also appears quite likely that individual stock selection and transaction timing on both sides of the market will be much more important this year than it may have been last year.
Graph.1 shows the Euro Stoxx 50 approaching the 3700-3800 resistance zone which is technically speaking an important level because it is a 50% retracement of the fall between April 2000 and March 2003 and also because many investors and traders look at Fibonacci numbers.













COMMODITIES

Brent

The Brent continues to rise on concern that supply will be insufficient and trades now close to the psychological level of 60$.
The strong bullish trend is back and the medium-term target is close to the 70$.














Gold
A major bull signal was given for gold with the breakout of the very long-term base.
A strong bullish acceleration at the end of 2005, led to the realization of a medium term target. Gold is now entering into a consolidation phase. However, the uptrend should resume. The long term potential is located at 550 $.














GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
European bonds dropped on signs growth in the 12 nation economy is accelerating, bolstering speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates this year.It will be interesting to see if the rate of the German 10 Year is able to break above the older support, now strong resistance, as it retrace 50% of the rise from September to mid-November 2005.














EURO-DOLLAR
In the short term the rate continues to trade sideways between 1.17-1.19, but the long-term trend remains down.Only the break above the psychological level of 1.20, which is the confluence of two resistances lines would reverse the momentum.