On this long term chart of the EUR/USD you can see that the target of the ascending triangle was recently reached.
But was is amazing to me is the nice Fibonacci correlation between the waves.
For instance : W3 =1.618*W2 around 1.492 and W3=0.618*W1 around 1.5.
The 1.4967 top was right between these levels.(thank you Karel !)
Also Wave 2 retraces 38.2% of Wave.
Who says that the market is "a random walk"?
US consumer confidence decreased today to 87.3.
This is worrying for the US equity markets because this indicator (black line) is strongly correlated with the SP 500 (yellow line).
Also note that the capacity util. Index (green line) is also strongly correlated to the SP 500.
Equities
As you can see on this weekly chart, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 is testing its 2003 support level.
That level must hold to keep the 2003-uptrend alive!
The German 10 year yields fall below 4% confirming the bullish technical outlook for bonds.
As you can see on the chart, the first target of the bearish C wave is 3.776, the next one is the strong support zone around 3.7-3.65%.
The AAII ratio (red line) decreased to the lowest level since May 2006 (high pessimism)
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A lot of downgrades in the technical scoring, especially for AUTOS BASIC RESOURCES and INDUSTRIALS.
Unlike other commodities, like gold and oil, industrial metals failed to profit from dollar weakness.
more than 30%)
In my opinion the dollar index (DXY) made a bearish descending triangle.
The target of the pattern is around 70 which means 7% downside.
(target of 1.6 on the €/$)
Remember that chart (decennial pattern-years ending in 7-sending in October), 
Equities
Currently, a correction is in progress that is affecting all major indexes.
Hopefully, there are still some critical support levels that coud stopped the decline in the coming days/weeks.
While the market is approaching oversold/support levels, it is not as oversold as it needs to be, and more technical work is needed before I can have confidence that a solid bottom has been made.(DJ Euro Stoxx 50-daily)
US small caps continue to lead on the downside.
In fact, the S&P 600 is already testing its August lows.
The test of the support level around 400 should be watching closely.
The MACD is a usefull (but lagging- it does not try to anticipate major bottoms or tops) trend indicator.
It was designed to signal major turning points.
For instance on the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 since 2000, the monthly indicator gave only 3 signals :
Sell in October 2000
Buy in July 2003
And recently sell in September 2007.
Take a look at Copper a very good cross check for economy and inflation is about to complete a massive triple top. The neckline more or less coincides with the 2003 primary uptrend around 305$. So breaching 305 would be very bearish for copper and may be a bearish indication for the economy.
A lot of downgrades and one upgrade (basic resource).
Equities
A few weeks ago the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 was trying (for the second time this year) to challenge new highs.
Unfortunately the index fails to do so and after a double top pattern, breaks quickly below important support zone.
The all move move since the bottom in August could be consider as a bearish rising wegde pattern.
The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows.
The correction that follows is often steep and quick in time.
The first downside target is 4200 and the next one is the August low.
In October I said that in the long-term the general technical environment was in degradation but that I did not observe sell signals validated on this horizon.
This scenario has now changed and as you can see in the table below, momentum as measured by the Macd indicator is now bearish on all time frames, meaning that we should see a continuation of the downtrend in the near term.
Bonds
As usual bonds rally when stocks fall and the German 10 year yield breaks below the important rising uptrend line active since December 2006.
Moreover the bonds/equities ratio Ifollow is close (but no signal yet-circle on the chart below) to give a buy signal for the first time since 2002.
A breakdown below August low would be very bullish for bonds.
Brent
The Brent has now reached all of my short term targets.(the last one was 94$) and is now overbought on all time frames.
The uptrend still prevails but short-term profit taking could occur soon.
Euro 
Long term bullish but very overbought as the rate is now trading in the top half of the risng channel on the weekly chart.
But for now I don’t see any bearish signal yet.
Today the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 validates a bearish double top below the TDST line.(dot red line)
Yesterday the index already closed below an important rising support line and the recent rally from mid-august looks to be a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The target of the (minor) double top is 3% lower but for the rising wedge, the
lowest valley in the pattern is the price target.(August low)
Les marchés d’actions font de nouveau l’objet de prises de bénéfices mais pour l’instant je n’observe pas (encore) de signaux négatifs de retournement majeur.
Il y a donc lieu d’être très sélectif.
Un ranking des différents secteurs Stoxx basé sur la force relative me permet de savoir quels sont ceux qui sont bien (mal) orientés.
En voici le résultat. 
A few months ago I publish a chart about the decennial cycle of years ending in 7.
The long-term chart of the CSI 300 INDEX (300 most representative China stocks), looks parabolic to mee and the lack of volume is worrying.
