Le graphique long terme mensuel du taux 10 ans US dévoile un profond changement de tendance.
En effet, la barre des 5% ayant été récemment franchie, le trend baissier séculaire qui prévalait depuis 1994 est maintenant terminé.
Techniquement parlant un taux de 7% dans les prochaines années semble tout à fait réaliste.
La validation de la sortie d'un triangle ascendant de creux sur l'Euro-dollar nous donne statisquement 89% de chance d'arriver au target (min 1.30) dans les prochaines semaines.
EQUITIES
European and US markets managed to recover and were upgraded to short-term bullish.
As you can see on the chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 below, the daily Macd indicator is now bullish.(lower panel)
The long-term bull trend is intact but another upside acceleration is likely to precede another correction as the weekly indicator is looking toppish.(mid panel) 
COMMODITIES
Brent
Crude Oil remains in a clear uptrend and surges to the 75$ level last week.
As long as the 67 level holds, the uptrend remains intact.
Technically speaking my target remains in the 84-85$ area in the coming weeks. 
Gold
Gold has exceeded my target of 630$ and is now overbought.
This current upside acceleration is not sustainable in the short term.
Further short-term correction in Gold is thus expected in the coming days.Nonetheless, the favourable global growth outlook and liquidity conditions do not herald a major reversal.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Nothing new this week, as the yield trades close the 4% psychological resistance.
Short-term pullbacks are probable but the next major resistance, which is also the technical upside target remains 4.5%.
EURO-DOLLAR
Breaking above the 1.22 level again.
The bullish trend is slower because of many technical corrections punctuate the rise but I continue to favour $ selling and believe that the rate could reach 1.24 in the coming weeks.
EQUITIES
The Euro Stoxx 50 and the SP 500 are now close to support level.
I believe that global equity markets could be vulnerable in the short run if oil prices and bond yields keep rising.
The chart below shows the Euro Stoxx 50 with 3 momentum indicators.
The first one, the more important, shows that the long-term trend is still rising.However, the second one which is a weekly momentum is close to give a sell signal and the third one (daily) is still bearish which means that if support is broken, the correction is likely to go further probably toward the 3600 level.
COMMODITIES
Brent
Last week the Brent broke through its 2005 peak to reach his highest level ever.
The Brent has also moved through the psychological level of 70$.
I stay with my mid-term target of 84-85$ in the coming weeks.
Gold
Easily exceeded my short- term target of 610$.
The trend remains bullish and the next target around 630$ could be reached soon.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Is now close to the 4% psychological resistance.
I suggested last week that the next upside target was 4.5%.
While I remain convinced that bond yields have embarked on a new uptrend, there is still another technical hurdle that they have to overcome to prove that the long-term downtrend in long-term rates has finally ended.
The monthly chart below shows the downtrend in yields from the 1990 peak. Needless to say, a move above that resistance line around 4.3% would be the final sign that the era of long long-term rates has finally ended.
EURO-DOLLAR
Breaking above the 1.22 level again.
I continue to favour $ selling and believe that the rate could reach 1.24 in the coming weeks. 
Après avoir longtemps sous-performé (depuis aout 2005),
les valeurs pétrolières sont proches d'une cassure à la hausse.
La courbe en rouge est le graphique en absolu du Stoxx Oil&Gas
et la courbe en noir le graphique en relatif par rapport au
Stoxx600.
EQUITIES
The stock market did well in the first quarter.
As welcome as the gains were, the Euro Stoxx 50 continues to trade sideways.
The SP 500 however remains strong and should reached the next target between 1330-1350.(see chart below)
COMMODITIES
Brent
Brent is challenging resistance of a major triangle formation around 68$.
A breakout above this level would be very bullish with a high probability to reach the 84-85$ level in the coming weeks.
Gold
Gold and metals continued to move their way higher.
Last week, gold futures contract breached the $600 level for the first time in 25 years.
The chart below shows gold breaking out a symmetrical triangle above the 560$ level.
Next target would be minimum 610$.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Broke through a major long term resistance last week.
The next resistance is the psychological one at 4% but the mid-term target in the coming months is now around 4.5%.
EURO-DOLLAR
The breakout above the 1.22 level has been followed by a significant pullback.Nevertheless we still believe that the rate could reach 1.24 in the coming weeks.
Le taux 10 ans vient de valider la cassure d'une importante résistance passant nettement au-desssus du niveau des 3.8%.
Ceci ouvre une perspective haussière importante à moyen terme vers les plus hauts de l'année 2004 à savoir vers 4.5%. 
