Equities
While I remain optimistic on equities, I have been faced with increased investor concern that the market is ripe for a correction. Despite the long-term uptrend, a short-term setback cannot be ruled out.
Please note as highlighted last week, how well TD Combo and TD Sequential indicators identified the recent sell signals on the DJ Euro Stoxx 50.(arrows on chart)
I think that a fall to the lower band of the rising channel is a strong possibility in the coming days or weeks. 
Only 12% of the members of the Stoxx 600 are in a short-term uptrend (32% mid-term and 71% long-term.
On the positive side we have sentiment readings continuing to indicate more fear than greed among investors.
On the negative side we have some emerging markets (Russia, China) and real estate already in downtrend.
Pressure on the inter-market side also continues to build; the negative trends in bond markets are starting hurting equities and oil prices are breaking above important resistances.
So I address cautious investors’ concerns by looking for ways to protect portfolios from the riskiest areas without giving up exposure to equities and sacrificing potential upside.
That is why the Japanese market seems interesting today as the Nikkey recently broken up above 17500.Moreover the Yen in Euro has an inverse correlation to equity markets.
On the negative side we have some emerging markets (Russia, China) and real estate already in downtrend.
Pressure on the inter-market side also continues to build; the negative trends in bond markets are starting hurting equities and oil prices are breaking above important resistances.
So I address cautious investors’ concerns by looking for ways to protect portfolios from the riskiest areas without giving up exposure to equities and sacrificing potential upside.
That is why the Japanese market seems interesting today as the Nikkey recently broken up above 17500.Moreover the Yen in Euro has an inverse correlation to equity markets.
Bonds
Breaking above my first target of 4.5% (first time since end 2002!)
The second upside target iss 4.85% but at current levels investors could be interested in buying some bonds and selling some equities.
The US 10 year bond yield also rise above the psychological level of 5%.
Our technical target for the coming months is close to the 5.4% lev
el.Brent
No change, still bullish above 70$.The Brent could soon challenge the 75$ resistance zone(rectangle on the chart).
No change, still bullish above 70$.The Brent could soon challenge the 75$ resistance zone(rectangle on the chart).
Euro
The trend remains positive for the Euro but a deeper pull-back towards the major support line is still my scenario. This support must hold in order to expect a resumption of the uptrend.
The first minor support is 1.33 (red dot line).
The trend remains positive for the Euro but a deeper pull-back towards the major support line is still my scenario. This support must hold in order to expect a resumption of the uptrend.
The first minor support is 1.33 (red dot line).
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire