mercredi, juin 14, 2006

Waves

On a weekly basis you can see on the charts that we are still in Wave A (first leg down).
On a daily basis I think it is less clear because this could still be wave A but also Wave C.
The correctives waves are always more difficult to predict.
The more bearish correction is the Zig-Zag.(5-3-5)
The 2 others corrections (the flat (3-3-5) and the triangle) are more consolidations patterns.
















My guess is that the market is correcting a 3 years bull market and so I expected another wave down and a Zig-Zag pattern.
Some guidance : C is is often as long as A.
C is often 1.62 (or 1.38) X A.
So, it is very important to see if Wave A on the weekly chart is a 3 (flat = small correction) or a 5 moves down (zig-zag= deeper correction)
For now I only see 3 moves down on most indices.

Conclusion : I will closely monitoring the next rally before making hasty conclusions.
My interpretation :SPX support zones : 1210 and 1090 beware that the advance from 2003 looks like a rising wedge and a break below 1300 may trigger quick losses.
DJ Euro Stoxx 50 :close to support next one difficult to see but beware this could be a big ( head and shoulder) top pattern.



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