Cycles et perspectives marchés actions pour 2011
L'histoire se répète est un des grands principes de l'analyse technique, elle repose sur un phénomène d'imitation basé sur la psychologie humaine et sur l'observation des tendances. Les quelques graphiques ci-dessous (sur les marchés américains car l'historique est plus longue) mettent en évidence les cycles boursiers soit de façon historique, en comparant une période à une autre, soit de façon quantitative car il existe des cycles établis et reconnus par le marché. Le premier graphique du Dow Jones depuis le début des années 1900 dévoile des périodes de fortes tendances haussières suivies par des périodes de fortes volatilitées. La période actuelle, c'est à dire celle qui a commencé en 2000 ressemble étrangement à celle qui s'est déroulée entre le milieu des années 60 et le début des années 80. 
Le graphique suivant permet de « zoomer » et de comparer les deux périodes entre les points 3 et 4 en rouge sur le premier graphique.
Une dernière analyse comparant la moyenne des performances du Dow Jones lors d'un rebond cyclique dans un marché boursier baissier long terme (ligne bleu) par rapport au rebond actuel (de puis mars 2009- ligne rouge) montre que la troisième année de hausse est synomyne de baisse pour l'indice. 
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