lundi, avril 23, 2007

This long term chart coming from Metastsock is a long term trading system design to anticipates turning points, maximize long term return while reducing downside risk.
As you can see the results are quite good.









click on the chart to enlarge

So for now we can't deny the momentum is still to the upside for the time being.
The DJ Euro Stoxx 50, SP500, MSCI world all made new fresh technical breakouts last week.
Technically, it would be challenging to find fault with this new continuation rally on an increase in volume with higher highs and higher lows.
So, for me the conundrum is: 1)equity index are overbought (14 day RSI on the DJ EURO Stoxx 50 is above 70).
Being overbought has not always been problem the last several months, though it was a horrifying problem in late February.
2) Solid earnings have hit these markets, this coupled with positive M&A activity, you have the makings of a rally.
But the intermarket picture is worrying with long term rates on the rise and $ falling.
3)the trend is so strong with new highs on most indices but the danger for the equity markets may be coming from the Chinese market as the trend for the CSI 300 index is now turning parabolic and as the daily TD combo and TD sequential indicators are just recently flashing sell signals (this was also the case in mid February).

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