vendredi, janvier 26, 2007

Be careful on bonds?

The chart of the 10 year US yield shows that price made new low in December 06 on rising Macd.
This divergence finally gave the signal that a bottom had been reached.
It is interesting to note that this bottom pattern can be classified as an imperfect double bottom.
When the long term down-trendline was broken in the beginning of January, the buy signal was given.
The objective in the coming weeks according to the swing rule is above the 5% level.













The German Government bond yield also validates a double bottom pattern.The recent pull-back was succesful and the rally could now extend towards the 4.4% zone.
So, it seems that long term yields finally broke to the upside (reversal patterns) and establish a strong upward trend.

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