US long term yields

Yesterday, the US 10 year bond yields broke the 4% and the declining 200 day MA.(green line)
The mid-term technical target of the bullish ascending triangle is around 4.7% for the coming weeks/months.

Brent

Le Brent arrive désormais à la hauteur d'une zone de résistance majeure vers les 130-135$, ce qui correspond à la borne haute du canal haussier sur le graphique long terme.
Actuellement, cette plage de cours a de très faibles chances d'être dépassées sans la réalisation préalable d'une correction.
Le marché est clairement en état d’exagération et les indicateurs techniques déjà fortement surachetés perdent en puissance.
De plus le volume récemment constaté est très important (configuration de blow-off) ce qui est souvent une indication de fin de cycle à court terme.
A plus long terme l’objectif reste 150$ mais avant le prix du baril devra faire une pause, ce qui implique une correction.
Le premier support à surveiller se situe vers les 120$ mais une correction plus importante comparable à celle récemment observée sur l'once d'or (15%) est tout à fait possible.

Short term decline or new bearish leg?

After failing to break above the 3900 resistance level the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 may start a correction.On this hourly chart, you can clearly see a break of a bullish ascending trendline.The first support zone is 3700.

If the index failed to rebound in the coming days, there is a high probability of extending the slide towards the lower part of the rectangle. (daily chart-support around 3500)

New all time high for the Baltic Dry Index

This index is a measure of shipping costs for commodities and reflects strength in the global economy as well as strong demand for raw materials.

This is good news for energy and materials stocks.

Still bullish

In the US, the SP500 was able to remain above the important level of 1400 and is now testing the falling 200 day moving average.(green line)

The index now faces short-term overbought pressures and it may have some difficulty climbing above it.

The good news is that price momentum, patterns and investor sentiment suggest conditions are still supportive of further upside gains.(mid-term target is 1540)
The bad news is that the rally continues to be very selective, driven primarily by basic resources and energy stocks.
This rally needs to broaden or it may fail in the coming weeks.

In Europe, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 were not able to break above resistances (respectively 3900 and 330).
This is an indication that bearish traders are more active near resistance zones.
Nevertheless, I still think new breakout attempts are likely in the coming days.

Short term pull-back?

Last week, the SP500 rose above the important level of 1400, which open the door to the 1540 level for the coming weeks.
In Europe the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 failed to break above 3900.
So far, I estimate that a break through 3,900 is still likely but a failure to confirm such a breakout by the end of next week would force me to reassess this scenario.
On a long term basis, I still believe that the current move is only a bear market rally and is probably not the start of a new secular bull trend.
On a short term basis the market is moving into an increasingly overbought position. (see chart below)
That could suggest that a short-term pullback may occur over the next one or two weeks but as long as we have the SP 500 above 1390 I don’t expect any major negative surprises.

India

This chart of the Sensex index (India) looks promising.

After a positive divergence (RSI lower panel), the index broken up the downtrend in mid-April .

Moreover, today it was able to reintegrate the bullish trend active since June 06.

Bund

The German 10 Yr yields broken up the downtrend which has been in place since June 2007.
Expect yields to advance further towards 4.30% or even close to the peak of 2007 (4.70%).

A bottom end April?

The equity markets remain rated short-term neutral. The scenario remains unchanged looking for a breakout above resistance zone, which will resume the medium-term bottoming process.
It is still expected to come towards end of April(weekly SP 500 chart with cycle finder and Fibonacci time projections) as it seems that most indices will probably try a bullish exit of their trading range. (daily chart DJ Euro Stoxx 50).

China

The CSI index has fallen over 35% from its high in January to its low to date near 3545. (double top pattern)
According to this chart the index could fall another 10% before testing the long term ascending trendline.(arrow)

Test of the lows?

The short term uptrend seems broken for the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 (upper chart) and in the same time we have a classical " flight to quality" for bonds.(German 10 years yields-lower chart).

SP 500

Why I remain mid- term carefully bullish for the SP 500:


-high level of pessimism, which is bullish from a contrarian point of view.
-during the March retest most technical indicators failed to match the new price lows (positive divergence)
-The fact that the market ignores the recent bad news (e.g. macro economic data, inflation, banks), indicates that the mood has changed.
-According to Fibonacci time zones, the bias for April should be bullish.
-insiders and “smart money” (commercials) are bullish.
-67% of stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving averages. This is the highest level of the year for the breadth indicator, even though the index itself has not made new highs.
This is positive news for equity markets, since a majority of stocks are beginning to break out of their downtrends.
-According to Elliott waves analysis, the downside target for the bearish A wave ( from a double top pattern) was reached in March and a bullish corrective B wave is underway.
-The weekly Macd indicator is close to be bullish which increases the probability of a breakout above resistance.

A break above resistance zones ( 3900 for the DJ Euro Stoxx 50-1415 for the SP 500) would be very positive.
The initial upside target for the S&P 500 is 1560 if the index breaks above its February peaks.

On the negative side we have :
-short term bad risk return because of strong resistance zone ahead
-lack of volume (divergence with price).
- still a trading range and no bullish reversal pattern yet.
-Equity indices are trading below the falling 200 day moving averages.

€/$

Lors de la dernière étude sur l’eurodollar nous avions remarqué que :
-la tendance long terme restait toujours haussière.
-l'importance de la sortie haussière du triangle ascendant, qui permettait d'avaliser le franchissement du seuil psychologique à 1.50 $ pour 1 euro avec comme objectif minimun 1.56.
-Que le taux de change semblait vulnérable à une prise de profit mais que rien ne permettait déja d’affirmer qu’un retournement majeur en faveur du $ se produira bientôt.
Que pouvons-nous observer actuellement :
1/ À moyen terme, la tendance de la parité EUR/USD est toujours orientée à la hausse et un dépassement des nouveaux plus hauts viserait un objectf 1.648.Cet objectif est déterminé par la formation d’un nouveau triangle ascendant mineur.
2/ À court terme, après l'atteinte de la première cible intermédiaire à 1.56 et la légère extension qui a suivi, la devise se trouve désormais en état d'exagération.
Plusieurs éléments le montrent :
-La perte de vitesse du Macd et du RSI dans des territoires tendus, équivalents à ceux atteints lors de la précédente avancée de fin 2007, juste avant le démarrage de la pause.(flêches blanches)

-La réalisation de l'objectif du triangle ascendant qui appelle des prises de bénéfices et la présence récente de chandeliers d'essoufflement.
-Un signal de vente donné par l’indicateur TD Combo (chiffre 13 et flèche en rouge sur le graphique)
- La décroissance des positions ouvertes sur le Dollar Index (non représenté).
En conclusion, après avoir connu une nouvelle avancée significative, la devise s'apprête à faire une pause, à court terme.
Il faut également surveiller de très près la présence proche de la résistance horizontale sur les plus hauts et du support de la droite de tendance ascendante qui pourraient donner de nouveaux signaux dans les prochains jours/semaines.

Buy&sell Dj Euro Stoxx 50 and DJ Industrials

"click on the tables to enlarge"

$/€

Après avoir validé un signal d’achat fin février sur une sortie haussière un forme de triangle ascendant, le taux de change semble vulnérable à une prise de profit.
Voici pourquoi :
- l’objectif de la figure haussière (1.56) a été largement atteint et dépassé.
- Les indicateurs de tendance sont surachetés sur tous les horizons de temps (mensuel, hebdomadaire et journalier)
- Sur le graphique journalier ci-joint on peut observer un signal de vente récent sur le RSI et sur le TD Combo (nombre 13-flèche sur le graphique)
A ce stade toutefois, rien ne permet d’affirmer qu’un retournement majeur en faveur du $ se produira bientôt, mais il est assez clair qu’une correction vers la droite de tendance haussière au environ des 1.55 est une probabilité importante à cours terme.

En cas de rupture de cette droite, un retour vers le niveau des 1.49 est possible.

Bear trap?

As I said in the previous weekly that: in the short term, most indices are caught in a trading range and are testing January lows.
In the event of renewed panic selling, like in mid-January, I think that the correction could extend below this level.
However, I suspect they are trying to bottoming out in the coming weeks.
And now I think that with the making of the new low on monday ( panic selling) and the nice up-move yesterday, that the monday’s downside acceleration was probably a bear trap.
I also think the market is still caught in a trading range, after all March was already the fifth month down and money could flow from gold and oil (double top on the CRB index) back to stocks and into the dollar.

Technical weekly 14032008

Equities

In the medium term, stocks are caught in a bear market.

The main reasons for that are: continued inflationary pressure, a coincident bull market in gold and commodities (switch from soft to hard assets) weak earnings growth and outflow in equity funds.

In the short term, most indices are caught in a trading range and are testing January lows. In the event of renewed panic selling, like in mid-January, I think that the correction could extend below this level.

However, most sentiment surveys now highlight extreme pessimism on equities and as I said last week a recent low risk buy signal was made by TD Combo&Sequential. In the past, such extreme pessimism has often coincided with significant short term bottoms.

Bonds

No change, bond yields trade now close to major support.(3.65%)

The risk/return is not good for bonds right now but a break below this level (which corresponds of the 61.8% retracement of the last bull move) could imply a downside move towards 3% for the coming months.

Brent

The Brent is now close to our 112$ target. I suspect oil prices is vulnerable to pullback as crowd sentiment is now extremely optimistic.

Euro

Also close to our target of 1.56, the exchange rate is now extremely overbought and a correction may follow soon.

Smart&dumb money

The 2 charts below show the trend of the smart money (black line) and the trend of the dumb money (yellow line-small traders) for the SP 500.(traders commitment)
On the first one you can see that the smart money became short in mid 2000.
In the second one you can see that the smart money were selling equities since end September 07 and became short recently.

Yesterday, the fed announces a continued liquidy boost.
Just in time! The SP500 rocketed higher, it was a very bullish session and the index was able to rebound on a very important support level.
Do the fed look at charts, I don’t know but this could mark the start of a more sustained rally.
Long term momentum indactors are deeply oversold and sentiment indicators are pessimistic with clear signs of capitulation among retail investors.
Economists are very bearish and most of them think the US economy is already in recession.
This is good news!According to Ned Davis Research, the market bottoms in recessions have been followed by median gains for the SP500 of 15% 3 months later, 23% 6 months later and 34% a year later.
Moreover, since 2000, technical analysts have noticed that a significant trend reversal has always occurred during March: major high in March 2000, low in March 2001 , high in March 2002 , major low in March 2003, high in March 2004 , minor high in March 2005 and minor low in March 2006.

La bourse ou l'économie?

La plupart des grandes banques se basent sur un scénario macro économique pour anticiper une hausse ou une baisse des marches d’actions.
Pourtant on lit et on entend souvent que la bourse anticipe l’économie.
Les deux graphiques ci-dessous sont une façon objective de répondre à cette importante question.
Ils comparent le S&P composite et le cycle économique mesuré par le “National Bureau of Economic Research”(http://www.nber.org) depuis 1900.
Les lignes verticales rougent indiquant les contractions (points bas) et celles en bleues les expansions (points hauts) du cycle économique en cours.
Pour l’indice, les flèches rouges indiquent les creux et les bleues les pics.
On peut clairement remarquer que la bourse anticipe bien l’économie dans la plupart des cas.
Les trois seules exceptions en plus de 100 ans se sont produitent pendant les deux geurres et en 2001.
Les graphiques et les commentaires sur les graphiques proviennent de M.Elio Zammuto.(http://www.the-intermarket.com)