SP 500

Why I remain mid- term carefully bullish for the SP 500:


-high level of pessimism, which is bullish from a contrarian point of view.
-during the March retest most technical indicators failed to match the new price lows (positive divergence)
-The fact that the market ignores the recent bad news (e.g. macro economic data, inflation, banks), indicates that the mood has changed.
-According to Fibonacci time zones, the bias for April should be bullish.
-insiders and “smart money” (commercials) are bullish.
-67% of stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving averages. This is the highest level of the year for the breadth indicator, even though the index itself has not made new highs.
This is positive news for equity markets, since a majority of stocks are beginning to break out of their downtrends.
-According to Elliott waves analysis, the downside target for the bearish A wave ( from a double top pattern) was reached in March and a bullish corrective B wave is underway.
-The weekly Macd indicator is close to be bullish which increases the probability of a breakout above resistance.

A break above resistance zones ( 3900 for the DJ Euro Stoxx 50-1415 for the SP 500) would be very positive.
The initial upside target for the S&P 500 is 1560 if the index breaks above its February peaks.

On the negative side we have :
-short term bad risk return because of strong resistance zone ahead
-lack of volume (divergence with price).
- still a trading range and no bullish reversal pattern yet.
-Equity indices are trading below the falling 200 day moving averages.