60% des actions composants le Stoxx 600 traitent au-dessus de leur moyenne à 20 jours, 85% au -dessus de celle à 50 jours, 91% au-dessus de la 100 jours et 84% au-dessus de la moyenne à 200 jours.
Conclusion : même si je trouve que la tendance reste excellente, l'indice est fortement suracheté et devrait marqué une pause au cours des prochaines semaines.
Voici les actions qui ont récemment validées une cassure à la hausse de la bande de bollinger.Il est à remarquer que le secteur des "telecom" semble fort intéressant et commence enfin à surperformer le marché.
Cliquez pour agrandir
Et celles qui ont récemment validées une cassure à la baisse :
Cliquez pour agrandir
Certains analystes techniquent pensent qu'une figure baissière de type TPDH est en cours sur le SP500.
Pour plus d'informations sur cette figure très rare et assez compliquée veuillez consulter ce lien :http:///www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wood061806.html.
Voici le décompte sur le SP 500 : 
Les marchés d'actions sont fortement surachetés :http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anMfgKMHCrRU
TD COMBO and TD SEQUENTIAL are technical indicators designed to anticipate tops prior to their completion.
I have scan the members of the Stoxx index in Excel and here are the results.
TD combo montly (long term) sell :Purple 13 indicates a completed countdown
AUTOGRILL SPA
BARCLAYS PLC
BULGARI SPA
DEUTSCHE BOERSE
DEUTSCHE POST-RG
IVG IMMOBILIEN
LVMH MOET HENNES
NATL EXPRESS GRP
PORSCHE AG-PFD
REXAM PLC
SAMPO OYJ-A SHS
TESCO
UMICORE
WENDEL
VIVENDI
TITAN CEMENT
TD Sequential montly (long term) sell :red 13 indicates a completed countdown
ALLIED IRISH BK
BANCO POPULAR
BRIT AIRWAYS PLC
DANONE
FORTIS
HENKEL KGAA-PFD
SACYR VALLEHERM
SEB AB-A
TATE&LYLE
ZARDOYA
Les indicateurs de sentiment basés sur les sondages se sont fortement redressés depuis quelques semaines.
C’est le cas des deux graphiques ci-dessous qui nous montrent le sentix 6 mois sur le DJ Euro Stoxx 50(prévision des investisseurs) par rapport à son indice et le bull/bear ratio des petits investisseurs américains depuis le début de l’année par rapport au SP500.
Sentix 6 mois/EuroStoxx 50
Bull/bear ratio-SP500
L’euphorie serait-elle de retour?Ce n’est pas le message donné par les put-call ratios qui restent fort élevés ce qui est un signal positif pour le marché.
ISE call/put ratio moyenne à 30jours. 
Put/call ratio OEX moyenne à 30 jours
Equities
Equity market remains overbought, but bullish.
The only concern is that consensus is now becoming complacent about the current advance.
Volatility for instance is very low and even though the market can continue to advance while these volatility indices remain low, it is a sign of overconfidence and complacency.
In any case, there are no confirmed sell signals, so the major trend remains upward.
The chart below shows the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 facing resistance around the 4000 points psychological level.
The next upside target according to Fibonacci projection is located around 4070.
Commodities
This week, we want to focus your attention to the Dow Jones-AIG Agriculture.
The Dow Jones-AIG Agriculture Sub-Index consists of the following seven commodity futures: Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Soybean Oil, Sugar, and Wheat.
Technically speaking the monthly (long term) chart looks very promising.
After a very sharp decline from the highs at 185 (November 1997) to the lows around 87 (November 2001) the index seems to be building a large base formation.
The montly Macd indicator is also close to validate a long- term buy signal.
Euro-dollar
Last week, the rate was able to rebound on the 1.25 support zone.
I favor a technical bounce from this support because most daily indicators are now in bullish mode.(see macd and slow stochastic on the chart)
Only a break below 1.25 would modify my scenario.
German 10 Year Yield
Yields continue to rise and seem to be breaking out above resistances.
On a short- term basis bond yields may have been forming a minor reverse head & shoulder pattern since late August.
The upside target of this pattern is located above the psychological level of 4%.
Equities
The intermediate term picture remains positive for the equity markets.
In general, there is a lot of complacency regarding the stock market.
I see it in the low levels of volatility, the high level of bullish newsletters but mostly I see it in the media and analysts comments ; no one is calling for a correction, and everyone is mentioning how positive the market is during the last two months of each year.
The monthly chart below shows that the trend of the Stoxx 600 is up but overbought.For now, I would not consider taking a bearish position (selling equities) but will enjoy the bullish ride and stay with my long position. 
Commodities
This week, I want to focus your attention to the GSCI industrial Metal index (GYX), which is close to an all-time high.
Over the past 15 years moves in the CRB (black line) and GYX (red line) index have traced each other fairly well, at least until the past two months when the CRB has plunged and the GYX has headed higher.
Looking at the constituents of the two index the main difference is that there is no energy or precious metals components in the GYX.This seems to show that prices for commodities - ex energy and precious metals have held up very well and are not pointing to a sharp slowdown in industrial activity. 
German 10 Year Yield
Yields are trading above the 3.8% level but I'm not sure that this rise will continue.
On the chart below, we can see a lot of resistances at this level.
Euro-dollar
The 1.25 level is an important one for the rate.
The weekly Macd indicator is already in bearish mode and volatility remains very low, which means a big move may be coming soon.I will watch closely this level in the coming days because a break below this level may trigger a rally for the $.
Le module scoring
Ce module est basé sur les moyennes mobiles ce qui permet de voir la tendance.
20 jours pour le court terme, 50 jours pour le moyen terme, 100 jour pour le long terme et 200 jours pour le très long terme.
Va de zéro à 10 points, la couleur verte étant synonyme de hausse du scoring, le rouge étant synonyme de baisse et le bleu inchangé par rapport au dernier scoring.
Indices larges
Le module de ranking ou de force relative
Pour pouvoir utiliser un classement (ranking) de nos valeurs (actions, indices, sicavs..), nous avons besoin d’un indicateur qui « normalise ».
Cet indicateur est le Rate of Change (ROC). Pour calculer un ROC, on divise simplement le prix de clôture actuel par un prix de clôture passé.
Trois ROC différents sont utilisés : 1, 3 et 6 mois, car un seul ROC pourrait donner trop de faux signaux (trop forte hausse ou baisse à court terme). C’est pourquoi la somme de 3 ROC sur différentes périodes permet de « lisser » le résultat.
Ce résultat final permet donc de comparer n’importe quelles actions (indices) entre elles. A côté de chaque valeur nous avons un chiffre qui nous donne son classement actuel. Ce classement est le plus important, il donne une photo instantanée de la santé technique de l’action.
Cependant, le tout n’est pas de connaître la tendance globale d’une action, il faut également connaître l’évolution de son sens .
C’est pourquoi, une autre colonne nous permet également de savoir combien de places la valeur a gagnées ou perdues pendant une période donnée.
Ceci est très utile pour savoir si la valeur perd ou gagne de la force relative et nous permet rapidement de visualiser les rotations sectorielles.
Le classement et le sens doivent s’analyser en même temps !
secteurs Stoxx
Le module de signaux
Ce module vous donne des signaux techniques d’achat et de vente sur toute une série de valeurs.
Ceci est donc un instrument de timing qui vous permet rapidement de distinguer les valeurs à sélectionner sur base des indicateurs de tendance (trending indicators), sur base des oscillateurs (trading indicators) ou encore sur le comportement de la volatilité (bandes de bollinger) ou des volumes.
Continuation de tendance : tous les indicateurs sont positifs.
Breakout : cassure au-dessus des bandes de bollinger
Valeurs surachetées
Continuation de tendance : tous les indicateurs sont négatifs.
TD Combo&TD Sequential
Ces signaux indiquent quand la tendance risque de se retourner avant que le marché forme un creux ou un pic.
En mensuel à la vente : Iberdrola et San Paolo Emi.
EQUITIES
The Dow Jones Industrial is now at all-time highs.
Bulls say this is good, and it is only a matter of time until the other indices follow. Bears have cited a lot of problems, including:
1) None of the other major broad-based indices is even close to an all-time high.
2) The number of NYSE stocks reaching a new 52-week high, the NYSE advance decline line and Dow Jones transport; all of them lagged the S&P500 during the summer.
3) The average Dow stock is actually 32% below its 2000 peak, meaning that the Dow was dragged to these high by a handful of stellar performers.
However, the fact remains that the Dow is at an all-time high and that most other indices have broken out to new five years highs.
These simple facts mean that the upside momentum is strong and therefore the charts of these indices remains bullish.The chart below shows the SP 500 reaching the target of the rising triangle around 1350.The last two candles are hammers which advice caution for the index, at least in the short term. 
COMMODITIES
Brent
No change, oil is still extremely oversold on a daily and weekly basis and I think a rebound may be coming soon.The mid –term trend is now down since August but on the weekly chart below, we can see that the 60-58 zone should provide support. 
Gold
No change from last week the ounce may continue to weaken towards the support zone around 550$ in the near term.A break below this zone will trigger an important long- term sell signal validating a double top bearish pattern.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Breaking down from the strong support at 3.75%, it would need to sustain a close above this level to offset potential for additional downside.
Technically this looks like a big top pattern for yields, meaning that I'm now bullish for bonds.The target of the pattern is located around the 3.4- 3.35%.
EURO-DOLLAR
Two weeks ago I said that: the euro should stay above support at 1.27 in order to keep the immediate outlook bullish and below 1.27 on the other hand, the downward risk would further extend to 1.25.The rate remains range bounded between 1.25 and 1.3 and volatility is very low, which means a big move may be coming soon. 
Le DJ Euro Stoxx 50 a vaincu la résistance des 3900!
Les projections Fibonacci nous donnent la barre des 4000 points comme premier objectif.
Attention toutefois, un risque d'accélération trop rapide et un optimisme demesuré pourraient déboucher sur un "blow off".
Le secteur des Basic Resources continue de mal prester.
Voici les signaux pour les valeurs faisant parties de l'indice Stoxx.
Par contre le secteur des Telecom me semble techniquement intéressant, avec de nombreuses "cassures haussières" sur les bandes de bollinger.
Le premier graphique nous montre le DJ Euro Stoxx 50 testant toujours l'importante résistance vers les 3900.
L'indicateur stochastique est suracheté et l'indice semble marquer le pas.
L'aide ne viendra probablement pas du marché américain car le SP 500 (graphique 2) approche de l'objectif faisant suite à la sortie d'un triangle ascendant.
En conclusion, le marché est hésitant alors que nous testons des niveaux décisifs sur ces deux indices.
Je pense toujours qu'il vaut mieux adopter une position défensive mais également qu'un dépassement de ces importantes résistances pourrait déboucher sur une forte accélération haussière à court terme. 
Le SP 500 vient de franchir un nouveau plus haut, l'objectif suivant faisant suite à la sortie haussière du triangle ascendant est de 1350. 
Voici quelques actions activent dans différents secteurs qui me semblent intéressantes en se basant sur le graphique hebdomadaire:
TELENET : sortie d'une large base et volume croissant.
Fondamentalement c'est une proie possible.
AHOLD
La confluence de plusieurs moyennes mobiles a provoqué une forte accélération haussière et le dépassement d'une résistance vieille de 4 ans.
STM
Les "technos" connaissent un regan de forme actuellement et après avoir formé un double creux, la valeur est bien partie pour atteindre les 16 EUR. 
Quelques autres valeurs toujours intéressantes : PPR, Gaz de France, Alstom, Crédit Suisse, Geberit, Nestle et les télécoms.
EQUITIES
Equity indices give not clear directional indications at least on a short- term basis.
The recent weakness still falls within the category of a consolidation and should be traded as such until short-term support is broken.
A break above new highs could prove that momentums are stronger than previously expected and the risk of a blow-off pattern (the peaking of stock prices after a lengthy advance and heavy trading) is rising.
On a mid-term basis I continue to believe that markets are trading in the late stages of their summer recovery and I stick to our cautious stance.
The main topic in the market remains sector rotation and the continued sell-off in commodity sectors.
The chart below compares on a relative basis the falling basic resources (black line) and Oil&Gas sectors (yellow line) with the rising retail (green line) and food&beverage (red line) sectors. 
COMMODITIES
Brent
Oil is now extremely oversold on a daily basis and I think it is not the time to be outright bearish on Brent.The mid –term trend is now down since August but on the weekly chart below, we can see that the 60-58 zone should provide support.
Gold
No change from last week the ounce may continue to weaken towards the support zone around 550$ in the near term.
A break below this zone will trigger an important long- term sell signal validating a double top bearish pattern.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Breaking down from the strong support at 3.7%, it would need to sustain a close above this level to offset potential for additional downside.
Technically this looks like a big top pattern for yields, meaning that I'm now bullish for bonds.The target of the pattern is located around the 3.35%.
EURO-DOLLAR
The euro should stay above support at 1.27 in order to keep the immediate outlook bullish with 1.30 as next target level.
A break above this level would be very positive because the rate would validate a bullish ascending triangle.
Below 1.27 on the other hand, the downward risk would further extend to 1.25.
Pour ceux qui veulent jouer la continuation de la hausse, voici un tableau récapitulant les différentes valeurs qui ont récemment validé un signal d'achat sur la bande de bollinger supérieure.
"cliquez sur le tableau pour l'agrandir"
Après la forte hausse d'hier la probabilité d'un "blow off" augmente fortement.
Les traders acheterons surement lors de la cassure alors que les investisseurs "long-terme" feront bien d'observer le graphique ci-dessous comparant le MSCI World en 2000 et 2006 (courbe jaune)
Le modèle de ranking recommande les secteurs Retail (sxrp), Food&Bev (sx3p), utilities (sx6p) et Fin.Svcs(sxfp) et la Suisse(tracker xmsmm) comme pays.Depuis le début du mois cette allocation a surperformer le Stoxx 600(sxxp) de 2.36%.
"Cliquez sur l'image pour l'agrandir"
Ces 10 valeurs ont été choisies sur base de l'analyse technique : Abengoa, Agfa Gevaert, PPR, Credit Suisse, Geberit, Nestle, Ahold, STM , Gaz de France et Alstom.
Le but étant de surperformer le Stoxx 600, ce qui a été largement le cas depuis le début du mois puisque la surperformance est de 7.92%!
"cliquez sur l'image pour l'agrandir."
EQUITIES
Last week positive equity markets actions does not change my technical scenario. September is usually a weak month and we continue to expect another corrective wave to develop into an October 4 year cycle low.
However the last week sharp rebound suggests that investors are still buying the dips but most indices are now overbought and close to resistances.
A break above new highs could prove that momentums are stronger than previously expected and the risk of a blow-off pattern (the peaking of stock prices after a lengthy advance and heavy trading) is rising.
The charts below show the DJ Euro Stoxx50 and the SP500 at critical juncture close to major resistance. 
COMMODITIES
Brent
The breakdown below the significant 65$ level and the 200 day moving average triggered the downside acceleration anticipated last week.The downside risk is the lower part of the rising channel on the weekly chart.(see arrow) 
Gold
Last week I said that: the short-term trend is bearish and the low part of the uptrend channel could be testing soon.
Gold trades now below the 200 day moving average and on the weekly chart below we can see that the next support is located in the 550$ zone.
A break below this zone will trigger an important long- term sell signal validating a double top bearish patte
rn.
GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
No change from last week. On the positive side (bearish for bonds) yields have stabilised above the 200-day moving average (in yellow) and are still trading above an important up trend-line. On the negative side, we have a falling 50-day moving average (in green) and short-term resistance around 3.85%.
EURO-DOLLAR
The $ is rising against the Euro and the rate recently broke below the 1.27 level.
This event causes a short-term deterioration in the technical outlook.
The downside risk is located at 1.25, which is an important support level.
I also advice to keep an eye on the Dollar index (which is an average of the exchange rates between the $ and 6 major world currencies; see chart below) because a short-term rally is underway and a base could well be forming. 
