Technical Weekly 27032006

EQUITIES
In Europe, the long-term trend is rising for 91% of the stocks (Stoxx 600), the medium-term trend is rising for 84% and the short-term trend is bullish for 77%.
As you can see the overall trend remains strong.
Most stocks are still advancing.(45.83%) but note also that 205 stocks (34.17%) are already caught in a short term correction.
So, I can’t exclude the possibility of short- term pullbacks but I don’t expect a major bearish reversal.
In the US, the market is trend-less but as long as the SP 500 holds above 1295, the bulls are still in charge.





COMMODITIES

BrentThe short-term trend remains neutral and I'm waiting for clearer indications.



















Gold
Gold rebounds on the support at 540$ and a break above the symmetrical triangle pattern would be very bullish.


















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
As I said in the last publication, the short- term trend is improving for bonds and a pullback to the 3.45% level seems now likely.However the medium and long -term trend are bearish.



















EURO-DOLLAR
The breakout above the 1.2 level has been followed by a significant pullback.Nevertheless I still believe that the rate could reach 1.24 in the coming weeks.

Technical Weekly 20032006

EQUITIES
How long and how far can the bonds decline, and how far can
interest rates rise until the rise becomes potentially bearish for
the stock markets?
The economic numbers continue to improve and the growth estimates are raised for most economic regions but sooner or later the rise in rates will become a drag. Stock markets have continue to benefit from the growth expectations, disregarding the interest rate rise.
But for how long?
For now if we look at the Stoxx 600 (graph 1) for instance the long term trend is still rising for 91% of the stocks , the medium trend is rising for 87% and the short term trend for 80%.
This means that the overall trend is so strong for equities that we should not expect a major bearish reversal, at least in the coming days.



















COMMODITIES

Brent
The short-term trend remains neutral and I'm waiting for clearer indications.
















Gold
Gold rebounds on the support at 540$ and is likely to resume the long-term uptrend with a break above the 560$.


















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Bond yields have continued to advance in Europe and are now approaching the 3.70% target.
The short-term trend could improve for bonds in the coming days, but the medium and long-term trends are bearish.



















EURO-DOLLAR
Last week, the rate breaks the 1.2 level confirming my bullish scenario.
This open the way for a rise to 1.24.

SP 500

Hier , le SP500 est enfin parvenu à passer le niveau des 1300 points.
L’objectif à court terme se situant entre 1340 et 1350 ce qui correspond respectivement à la validation d’un triangle ascendant et d’un rectangle.

Technical Weekly 100306

EQUITIES
The short-term trend on equity markets is now bearish but the medium and long term trend are still in uptrend which means that the last week correction do not jeopardize the bullish scenario.
The chart below shows the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 with three momentums indicators and as you can see the last one (short term) is down, but the second (mid term) and the first one (long term) are still rising.
There is a risk of seeing more significant short-term correction toward the ascending trend-line (support in red) but as soon as the support hold I view this move as a normal process with no significant trend change.














COMMODITIES

Brent
No change, the trend of the Brent is still bullish but I'm not sure that the consolidation pattern is over.Brent could continue to trade sideways in the coming days.
















Gold
Gold is now close to my target, which is the support around 540$.
However a break below the USD540 support zone could extend the correction much lower towards the low of the uptrend channel. (white line)
















GERMAN 10 YEAR YIELD
Bond yields have continued to advance since our last study in Europe and are now approaching the 3.70% target.
















EURO-DOLLAR

Nothing-new last week as the rate continues to trade sideways.
Short- term volatility remains low.
I still expected limited downside potential from here and think that the bottoming process is developing slowly.

DJ EURO STOXX 50

La confluence du soutien(en vert) et de la moyenne à 50 jours sera un test important pour l'indice.A surveiller de près dans les prochains jours.

Smart Money SP 500

Les "gros joueurs" à savoir les commercials sur le SP 500 sont de plus en plus short.














Par contre les "petits porteurs" viennent de fortement d'augmenter leurs positions longues.

MACD

Récemment, l’indicateur Macd en journalier à validé plusieurs signaux sur différentes classes d’actifs.
En voici quelques unes.
Signal d’achat : sur les matières premières : CRB index















Sur l’Euro-dollar.















Et sur le taux 10 ans Allemand.
















Signal de vente : sur le DJ Euro Stoxx 50.















Et enfin proche d’un signal de vente sur le SP 500.